What does the Greater Manchester mayoral election result mean for the political parties?

By Hannah Waters, Account Manager at Tendo Consulting

In the late hours of Friday, Bev Craig was announced as the new mayor of Greater Manchester.

Craig won with a combined total of more than 300,000 votes across both first and second preferences. She comfortably defeated her closest rival, Reform’s Sian Astley, who came second with just over 157,000 votes.

Her election gives Labour a decisive victory and provides a degree of political continuity following Andy Burnham’s move to Westminster. It also comes as regional mayors are expected to gain greater influence over policy, and as Manchester finds itself an increasingly important centre of government power, with the creation of No. 10 North.

Labour

This is an important win and a huge relief for Labour.

At the Gorton and Denton by-election, the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer claimed a historic victory, while Labour was pushed into third place behind Reform UK. Labour had also suffered significant losses to both Reform and the Greens in May’s local elections.

Against that backdrop, Labour has retained one of the most influential political positions outside Westminster. The result also demonstrates that Labour remains capable of winning back voters who abandoned the party during Starmer’s premiership.

However, Craig secured 47.1% of first-preference votes, falling short of an outright majority in the first round, achieved by Burnham in 2017 and 2021. The result therefore represents a strong recovery for Labour, rather than a complete endorsement.

Craig must now establish her own political identity while demonstrating delivery across transport, housing, skills, public services and economic growth.

Reform UK

Reform’s second-place finish confirms it remains a significant electoral presence across parts of Greater Manchester.

However, its performance was considerably weaker than might have been expected following its recent gains in May’s local elections. Reform received 21% of first-preference votes, considerably behind Labour’s 47.1%.

The party also faces a wider challenge from Restore Britain, which secured 8.7% of first preferences, and an increasingly fragmented vote on the right.

The Green Party

Following Hannah Spencer’s historic victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election, the Green Party finished third in the mayoral contest.

Its candidate, Geraldine Coggins, received almost 65,000 first-preference votes, just over 12% of the total. Whilst it may be disappointing following the by-election victory, it was the party’s strongest performance in a Greater Manchester mayoral election.

The result shows that there is still a considerable gap to close before the Greens can challenge for the mayoralty, but it also provides the party with a stronger platform from which to influence the regional policy debate. Their growing support also means Labour cannot assume that progressive voters will automatically remain loyal to the party.

Conservatives and Liberal Democrats

Fifth place represents another difficult result for the Conservatives, who continue to be squeezed by Reform and smaller parties on the right. The result also demonstrates the challenge the Conservatives face in offering an attractive alternative for right-leaning and centrist voters.

The Liberal Democrats secured only a modest share of the vote, with 2.8% of first preference votes. While they retained a stronger local presence in some boroughs, they struggled to make a significant impact across Greater Manchester as a whole.

Both parties will need to demonstrate how their policy offerings respond to the different priorities of Greater Manchester’s ten boroughs.

What does this mean for political engagement?

Labour may have won comfortably, but the result should not be interpreted simply as an endorsement of the status quo. It is a reminder that political support across Greater Manchester, and local government more broadly, is increasingly fluid.

The Mayor of Greater Manchester holds significant responsibilities across transport, housing and planning, policing, economic development and skills. However, delivery also depends on the ten local authorities, council leaders, portfolio holders, officers and a growing range of regional partnerships. Effective engagement needs to operate at several levels. Organisations should connect their priorities to the mayor’s wider policy agenda, demonstrate tangible benefits for individual boroughs and build support among local communities as well as political stakeholders.

There will also be a period of transition as Craig forms her administration, identifies her closest advisers and begins to distinguish her leadership from Burnham’s. For organisations seeking to engage with the Greater Manchester Combined Authority, understanding those emerging relationships and priorities will be essential.

With turnout at just 25.14%, there is also a wider challenge for every party: too many residents remain disconnected from regional politics.