Tendo Director Paul Gaffney comments on the Gorton and Denton By-Election.
It is time for by-election defeat bingo: “Governing parties often lose by-elections”, “It is a protest vote”, “they won’t hold in a General Election,” “We need to listen.”
By-elections are often protest votes, yes, but they should never be dismissed. This stunning victory for the Greens will be much more than a footnote in the history of Keir Starmer’s Premiership.
For the Greens, this result probably exceeds their expectations at the start of the campaign. To win this seat from a distant third proves that their surge is not a blip, they can win outside their areas of strength, they can run efficient and effective campaigns and, crucially, that their get-out-the-vote operation is significantly stronger than given credit for.
On the Reform side, this is very much a mixed bag. Coming second, the results reinforce the narrative that the challenge in the country is very much ‘Reform vs [Insert Party]’. However, it also shows that their appeal has limitations, and they will have concerns about how effective the ‘anyone but Reform ’ message can be. On the latter, they will hope that this is a squeeze message that works well in by-elections but struggles in more regular contests. Overall, Reform will be disappointed. But a strong second place and a collapsing Labour vote mean May’s elections still look promising.
As for Labour, this was not close. As in Caerphilly, they lost badly. It will bring back questions about blocking Burnham and the leadership merry-go-round, with many likely to question decision-making and the lack of a retail offer to voters.
Just as a narrow defeat in Runcorn saw moves to counter Reform, many on the backbenches will be pushing for a change in direction to counter an insurgent left-wing party. It makes another ‘reset’ and potential reshuffle much more likely, and focus will surely be given to the odd decision to send the Prime Minister to the by-election, giving a clear image and ownership of the defeat.
For the broader political debate, it reinforces the collapse of the traditional order, with the two main parties third and fourth, and the by-election ‘experts’, the Lib Dems, a distant fifth. Whilst the Tories and Lib Dems were never in this contest, it points to another weak set of local elections for the Tories and will leave the Lib Dems concerned about what impact a green surge will have on their future prospects.
The biggest implications of this are in the looming Green vs Labour debate and battle. It reinforces that the Greens look set to do exceptionally well in the local elections, with Labour Councils, including bastions like Hackney, looking in serious peril.
But, as the by-election bingo fades, the biggest question for the Government is how they should respond to the fracturing of our political system? How do Labour pivot to appeal to voters they have lost to wildly differing parties in the Green and Reform?
We can expect the Government’s response to borrow from James Carville’s “it’s the economy, stupid” and will focus on measures that tackle the cost of living and boost the economy. Within the party, many will demand a greater focus on delivery and cutting out unenforced errors ahead of a bruising set of elections across England, Scotland and Wales.
The reality is that everything has changed and nothing has changed. As we have become all too used to over recent years, our politics remains chaotic, dramatic, yet predictable. For those with policy asks, a Government losing votes in two directions will be harder to read and more unpredictable to engage with. But it will also create an opportunity as the Government seeks new narratives and Ministers come under pressure to find ‘good news’ policies which impact the everyday lives of people across the UK. Organisations that arrive with clear asks, credible evidence and an understanding of the current external and internal political climate will have an easier time making their case.
Sadly, I don’t think anyone is going to use the phrase ‘strong and stable’ on election posters for a while yet.
